Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
